Crypto critic and economics professor Nouriel Roubini is warning that the markets are in for a big shock this year.
In a new interview with Bloomberg Television, the economist known as “Dr. Doom” says that inflation is going to prove a lot harder to bring down than the central banks currently expect, and they will likely end up raising interest rates more.
“In equity markets, I think people think that central banks are done with raising rates and, therefore, they are going to cut rates to zero. I think that is highly unlikely…
[Central banks] may raise rates further in June. Certainly, the ECB (European Central Bank) is not done. And there is still a lot of inflation around the world. The big surprise this year is going to be [that] inflation is not going to fall as much as central banks expect.
Therefore, the central banks will have to make a tough choice of either raising rates more [which brings more] risks of a hard landing and financial instability or not raising rates, but then you are going to have the anchoring of inflation and inflation expectations. That’s the complacency of the markets.”
Roubini says investors are largely betting on a market recovery prompted by the Federal Reserve cutting rates after a short and shallow recession later this year. However, he warns a market correction is probable before any rate cuts.
“Markets believe that inflation has peaked, and it is going to fall sharply. There may be a short and shallow recession [that] is going to lead them to cut interest rates. So the markets are quite bullish about a short and shallow recession or even a soft landing and then recovery of the markets. Central banks are telling them, ‘No, we’re not done yet. We’re not going to cut the rate this year.’ And there’s even a risk of a correction of the economy. Even the staff of the Fed is expecting a recession later this year.”
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