- The surging yield on U.S. government bonds would benefit cryptos in the long term, as per Hayes.
- He said that growing TradFi interest could be detrimental to the core ethos of cryptos, like decentralization.
Arthur Hayes, founder of cryptocurrency exchange BitMeX, offered a refreshing take on the ongoing state of the crypto market.
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In a lengthy Substack essay, the American entrepreneur predicted that Bitcoin [BTC] won’t drop below $20,000 as feared by a big chunk of traders and analysts in the sphere. Instead, he projected that the king coin will wobble around the $25,000-mark throughout the third quarter of 2023.
Higher U.S. debt yields good for cryptos?
Hayes, one of the keen observers of the crypto market and the U.S. macroeconomy, based his prediction going against the conventional understanding around yields on government debt.
Experts cited increasing yields on U.S. treasury bands as one of the major factors behind last week’s market crash. This was based on the theory that higher yields on risk-free government debt generally harms demand for speculative assets like stocks and cryptos.
Arthur Hayes, on the contrary, opined that this situation augured well for riskier assets in the long term. He said,
“I also believe that at some point, more investors will do the Maths and realize that the Fed and U.S. Treasury combined are handing out billions per month to wealthy savers. This money has to go somewhere, and some of it will flow into tech stocks and crypto.”
Spot ETFs a threat to decentralization?
Apart from the market’s next moves, Hayes weighed in on the institutional interest around cryptos, seen in the barrage of spot ETF applications in recent months.
He issued a warning, stating that the increased interest shown by TradFi would eventually harm the core tenets of cryptos and blockchains. The entrepreneur said that these entities don’t have any interest in enhancing or even preserving Web3-specific ideals like decentralization, privacy, and censorship-resistance.
Furthermore, he predicted a restriction in in-kind redemptions of crypto financial products in the future, provided the applications are approved. This basically meant that holders would no longer be able to redeem actual crypto and would have to settle for redemptions exclusively in U.S. Dollars.
How much are 1,10,100 BTCs worth today?
In a nutshell, Arthur Hayes’ prediction about cryptocurrencies in general proved to be a mixed bag. While he downplayed the ramifications of certain macroeconomic events, the supposed threat to the much-cherished fundamentals could make maximalists nervous.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin exchanged hands at $26,400, nearly 2% up in the last 24 hours, per CoinMarketCap.